AGP Executive Report

IMF Deal: Zambia has reached a staff-level agreement on a new three-year programme worth about US$1.47 billion. Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane says the funding should strengthen the country’s ability to withstand shocks, including drought and global oil-market turmoil, as fuel subsidies are phased out. Public Spending: Treasury released K14.6 billion in September, including K5.4 billion for wages, K5.4 billion for debt service and arrears, and K435.8 million for social cash transfers. Mining Investment: ZCCM-IH approved a US$498 million tailings leach plant at KCM’s Nchanga mine, a major planned investment in copper production. Growth Outlook: The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3% and said Zambia’s prospects have improved, while warning that growth is not yet translating into enough jobs or poverty reduction.

US Health Deal: Zambia and Washington signed a five-year health partnership with about $1.5 billion in US funding. The agreement follows a dispute over patient data; how its separate data-sharing arrangement will work remains unclear. IMF Programme: Zambia reached a staff-level agreement for a new $1.47 billion, 36-month facility, pending IMF board approval. The Fund forecasts 5.6% growth in 2026, while planned fiscal reforms aim to lift the primary surplus to 3% of GDP by 2029. Civil society has urged the government to protect jobs and social spending. Growth Agenda: President Hichilema set targets including 10,000MW of power, three million tonnes of copper and US$1 billion in annual beef exports, alongside a shift to electric vehicles for government institutions and new fuel pipelines. Investment and Energy: ZCCM-IH approved a $498 million Nchanga tailings leach plant, while Axian Energy and Africa GreenCo signed a 240MW solar power purchase agreement in Zambia.

US Health Pact: Zambia and the United States signed a five-year health agreement, with Washington committing about $1.5 billion after a dispute over patient-data access. The data arrangement’s practical details remain unclear. IMF Financing: Lusaka reached a staff-level deal for a new $1.472 billion, three-year IMF programme, pending board approval. It aims to support growth and public finances, while gradually raising the budget surplus and protecting priority social spending. Grow Zambia: President Hakainde Hichilema set targets including 10,000 megawatts of power and 3 million tonnes of copper annually, and directed government institutions to buy electric vehicles. The shift will require charging infrastructure and careful management of costs. Investment: ZCCM-IH approved a $498 million Nchanga tailings-leach plant, while Axian Energy and Africa GreenCo signed a 240MW solar power-purchase agreement, adding to Zambia’s expanding energy pipeline.

IMF Financing: Zambia and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on a three-year programme worth about US$1.47 billion, subject to board approval. The deal follows a projected 5.6% growth rate this year, but civil society groups warn debt costs must not squeeze household support and social spending. Growth Agenda: President Hakainde Hichilema’s five-year plan targets more than doubling the economy, with goals including 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000MW of power and five million tourist arrivals annually. He also ordered government institutions to buy electric vehicles, with private-sector charging stations and new fuel pipelines planned. Energy Investment: Axian Energy and Africa GreenCo signed a power-purchase agreement for a 240MW solar project in Zambia, adding to a growing pipeline of solar and storage developments. Separately, ZCCM-IH approved a US$498 million tailings-leach plant at KCM. Credit Outlook: Moody’s moved its outlook for sub-Saharan Africa to positive and included Zambia among eight countries with positive individual outlooks, while cautioning that better ratings prospects do not guarantee cheaper borrowing.

Growth Agenda: President Hakainde Hichilema’s five-year Grow Zambia plan targets more than doubling the economy, with annual goals including 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000MW of electricity and three million tonnes of copper. US Health Pact: Zambia signed a five-year agreement worth $2.49 billion in combined commitments, with about $1.5 billion planned from the US and $975 million from Zambia; health cooperation is separate from ongoing critical-minerals negotiations, and officials say specimen-sharing clauses were removed. Power Investment: Axian Energy and Africa GreenCo signed a 240MW solar power purchase agreement, adding to Zambia’s expanding pipeline of solar projects. Mining: ZCCM-IH approved a $498 million tailings-leach plant at Nchanga, while a UN programme that includes Zambia aims to boost local processing and value from critical minerals. Economic Outlook: Moody’s gave sub-Saharan Africa a positive outlook, naming Zambia among countries with improving prospects, as the World Bank raised its 2026 regional growth forecast to 4.3%.

Health Financing: Zambia and the United States signed a five-year, $2.49 billion health partnership, combining $1.52 billion in planned US support with a $975 million Zambian commitment. Specimen-sharing and identifiable patient-data clauses were dropped, though the deal includes expanded digital health systems. Mining Investment: ZCCM-IH approved KCM’s $498 million Nchanga tailings plant, expected to produce about 70,000 tonnes of copper a year from waste material. Gold Trade: SignaFi secured a $35 million facility to expand gold purchases from artisanal mining groups, including in Zambia, and connect suppliers to formal markets. Energy: Zambia says it has exceeded its 2026 solar target, reaching 1,027MW as total installed generation capacity climbed to 4,722MW. Economic Outlook: The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3%, while reports say Zambia’s growth prospects have also improved.

Mining: ZCCM-IH approved KCM’s $498 million Nchanga tailings-leach plant, set to recover copper from historic waste and produce about 70,000 tonnes of cathode annually. Construction is expected to take two years, with no capital contribution required from ZCCM-IH. Health Financing: Zambia and the US signed a five-year, $2.49 billion health pact after dropping disputed patient-data and specimen-sharing clauses. The US is to provide $1.52 billion, while Zambia commits $975 million in increased health spending. Energy: Zambia says solar capacity has reached 1,027MW, surpassing its 2026 target, as total installed power capacity rises to 4,722MW. Hichilema says transmission investment must keep pace with generation growth. Economic Outlook: Moody’s gave its sub-Saharan Africa outlook a positive turn, naming Zambia among eight countries with positive sovereign outlooks, while warning that debt costs and climate risks remain. Hichilema also urged the IMF to support the Grow Zambia Agenda as talks begin on a successor programme. Investment: Hichilema invited UAE and Gulf investors to back projects in mining, energy, agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure.

Economic Outlook: President Hichilema met an IMF team to discuss a successor programme, saying it would complement the Grow Zambia Agenda. Absa says Zambia is growing faster than many SADC peers, but warns El Niño could threaten growth. Moody’s has placed Zambia among eight African countries with a positive outlook, while the World Bank upgraded its 2026 regional growth forecast to 4.3% and flagged debt-servicing risks. Power & Investment: Zambia’s installed generation capacity has risen to 4,722 megawatts, including 1,027.5MW of solar. A planned $300 million, 200-kilometre Zambia-DRC power line could supply up to 550MW to the Copperbelt and create export opportunities for Zambian producers. Mining: ZCCM-IH approved KCM’s $498 million tailings plant, expected to produce about 70,000 tonnes of copper a year. Separately, authorities are investigating a reported KCM spill after river discoloration and fish deaths near Chingola.

Mining: ZCCM-IH has approved KCM’s $498 million tailings plant at Nchanga, which is expected to produce about 70,000 tonnes of copper cathode a year. KCM will fund the project without a capital contribution from ZCCM-IH. Power & Trade: Zambia’s installed generation capacity has risen to 4,722.3 MW, including 1,027.5 MW of solar. A proposed $300 million, 200-kilometre power line linking Kalumbila and Kolwezi could carry up to 550 MW to the DRC and open export opportunities for Zambian producers. Economic Outlook: The World Bank lifted its 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast to 4.3% and named Zambia among countries with improved prospects. Moody’s also turned positive on the region, but warned Zambia’s interest bill could absorb about 35% of government revenue in 2027. Trade Corridors: The Lobito Corridor meeting in Lusaka focused on turning commitments into action, including better infrastructure, border processes and trade facilitation. Health Funding: Zambia is set to sign a five-year US health agreement worth more than $3.6 billion, with the government contributing $2.1 billion; patient-data and specimen-sharing clauses have been removed.

Health Financing Deal: Zambia and the United States are set to sign a revised five-year health financing MoU worth over US$3.6bn, after dropping clauses on specimen sharing and sharing of individual patient data—addressing data protection and other concerns raised during negotiations. Copper Processing Investment: ZCCM-IH has approved a US$498m tailings leach plant at Konkola Copper Mines, aimed at reprocessing Nchanga tailings to produce about 70,000 tonnes of copper cathode annually, with implementation expected to take 24 months. Economic Outlook: The World Bank says Zambia is among four African countries with improving economic management, upgrading its 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3% and highlighting Zambia’s reform progress—while warning growth must translate into jobs and poverty reduction. Food Security Preparedness: The Food Reserve Agency is scaling up Zambia’s strategic reserve to over 1m metric tonnes ahead of El Niño, as government warns of potential severe food shortages affecting about 1.2m people from October to March 2027. Lusaka Clean-Up Phase 2: Lusaka City Council enforcement is moving into phase two, shifting from clearing the CBD to placing vendors in designated trading areas, as officials push for sustained order and cleanliness. Politics & Governance: The Lusaka High Court allowed the Kabwata election petition to proceed after rejecting a time-bar bid, while civil servants were told to back the Grow Zambia Agenda or resign. Media & Elections: Government urged journalists to verify information and avoid propaganda ahead of the November 5, 2026 by-elections.

Zambia–US Health Deal: Zambia says it will sign a revised US$1.5bn health agreement this Thursday after dropping contentious specimen-sharing and patient data clauses; the total package is US$3.6bn over five years, with Health Minister Roma Chilengi insisting the MoU never included critical minerals conditions. Lusaka City Cleanup: Lusaka City Council moves to phase two of Operation Clear Path, targeting CBD decongestion and relocating buses from undesignated spots, after impounding about 40 buses and arresting two people. Lobito Corridor Push: President Hakainde Hichilema calls for tighter coordination among Zambia, Angola and DRC and stronger private-sector partnerships to turn Lobito Corridor commitments into projects. Fuel Smuggling Fallout: Police arrest 19 Malawians in two busts for allegedly smuggling over 5,400 litres of petrol into Malawi amid the country’s crippling fuel crisis. Digital Payments Competition: Airtel Money plans a virtual card in Kenya to enable international online payments from mobile wallets, challenging M-Pesa GlobalPay. Business & Industry: Multotec Zambia opens a new Chingola facility as its Central Africa regional head office, boosting local manufacturing and refurbishment support. Macroeconomic Outlook: The World Bank upgrades Sub-Saharan Africa growth to 4.3% for 2026, citing resilience and reforms, including improved forecasts for Zambia.

Lobito Corridor Push: President Hakainde Hichilema opened the Second Lobito Corridor Coordination Meeting in Lusaka, urging Zambia, Angola and DRC to deepen cooperation, speed up agreed targets and bring in private-sector investment to turn corridor plans into jobs and trade under AfCFTA. Lusaka CBD Decongestion: Lusaka City Council’s Operation Clear Path moves to phase two, targeting bus relocation from undesignated spots and clearing illegal trading, with police reporting about 40 buses impounded and arrests since the start. Health Deal Update: Zambia says it will sign a revised five-year US$1.5bn health agreement with the United States after dropping contentious patient data and specimen-sharing clauses. Power Finance: Mercuria and Exergy signed a US$250m financing deal to back Zambia power generation and transmission projects, supporting the push to expand supply. Electricity & Governance: World Bank raised Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% and urged AI investment; Zambia also faces scrutiny over corruption asset management as ACC calls for stronger recovered-asset disposal systems. Education Reforms: Government plans to launch teacher grievance redress guidelines this month, with BETUZ urging higher 2027 funding for delayed teacher upgrades. Digital Services: Zamtel unveiled the MyZamtel Super App plus Zambia-first innovations, including Create Your Own Bundle and Kongola Malaiti via *115#. Street Vendor Politics: Harry Kalaba backed Mayor-elect Mwewa Chitambala’s clean-up drive but warned against ignoring traders’ livelihoods.

AI Regulation: Google SVP James Manyika says AI capability must not outrun safety, arguing for shared oversight across industry, government and society. Energy & Power: The World Bank says Zambia is emerging from its electricity crisis and could become a regional power-trading hub as generation and transmission investment grows. Lobito Corridor & AfCFTA: President Hichilema, Finance Minister Musokotwane and Musokotwane’s “Engine Room” push the Lobito Corridor as an export-led, jobs-and-industrialisation engine for Zambia, DRC and Angola, to accelerate AfCFTA. Telecoms & Fintech: Zamtel launches the MyZamtel Super App plus Zambia-first innovations, including Create Your Own Bundle and Kongola Malaiti via *115#. Education Policy: ZUPED praises Government’s free education policy, citing 2.6m learners returning, teacher recruitment and classroom expansion. Illicit Trade: TCDI data puts Zambia’s illicit cigarette prevalence at 12.2%, with enforcement and supply-chain vulnerabilities driving the trade. Budget Discipline: Treasury’s Nkulukusa stresses careful management of public funds as 2027 planning faces salary pressures, maize arrears and El Niño risks. Solar Growth: Ember projects Africa could install a record 17GW of solar in 2026, with Zambia among fastest-growing markets. Digital Economy: MTN Zambia appoints Joshua Sichinga as chief consumer officer and rolls out sign-language interpreter videos to improve accessibility. Procurement & Productivity: Government says over 70% of industries are unproductive, while procurement professionals are urged to buy for value, not just lowest price.

Fuel & forex squeeze in the region: A Malawian fuel crisis is being blamed on forex shortages, depleted supplier credit and thin strategic reserves, with critics arguing the government is recycling old “supply chain shock” excuses while neighbours like Zambia still have fuel. Food security push: President Hakainde Hichilema urged chiefs to sensitise households to keep enough maize ahead of El Niño drought fears, advising storage in granaries and warning against complacency. Lusaka sanitation vs livelihoods: Lusaka City Council and police moved to clear street vending areas amid a cholera outbreak, but the enforcement fight is raising concerns about where thousands of traders will go. Corruption crackdown: The ACC arrested a Ministry of Community Development officer and a ZANIS news editor over alleged concealment of properties worth over K5.6m suspected to be proceeds of crime. Education leadership pressure: ZANEC urged the President to urgently appoint a Minister of Education, saying the sector is central to economic growth. Industrial productivity warning: Government says over 70% of industries are unproductive, with productivity currently at 26.3%, as it pushes a 24/7 economy mindset. Telecoms & consumer focus: MTN Zambia appointed Joshua Sichinga as Chief Consumer Officer, while MTN’s IHS tower acquisition cleared key regulatory hurdles in Africa. Trade corridor momentum: Dar es Salaam transit cargo rose 17% to 14.61m tonnes, with Zambia handling 3.41m tonnes, underscoring the logistics race for Central and Southern Africa. Lobito Corridor meeting in Lusaka: Zambia will host the second Lobito Corridor coordination talks on Oct 5–6 to strengthen cross-border implementation with Angola, DRC and partners. Regulatory & governance debate: Calls are growing around Zambia’s constitutional reforms, including a push from Western Province to petition Parliament on presidential term limits.

IMF Timing: Kenya is unlikely to sign a new IMF deal before the August 2027 elections, with the fund expected to wait out election cycles to protect policy continuity. Zambia Politics & Governance: A Western Province pressure group, Project 2090, plans to petition Parliament to remove the presidential two-term limit, arguing consistency with other proposed term-limit changes. Grow Zambia Agenda Push: President Hakainde Hichilema urged unity, discipline and hard work as the Grow Zambia Agenda rolls out, linking it to power generation and beef export targets. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: The ACC arrested a Ministry of Community Development officer and a ZANIS news editor over alleged possession and concealment of properties worth over K5.6m. Lusaka Street Trade & Health: Lusaka City Council enforcement to clear street vending is underway amid cholera concerns, with vendors and livelihoods at the centre of the political fight. Maize Marketing Row: UPND disowns George Mtonga’s comments on maize marketing, insisting FRA will provide official updates and farmers should rely on government channels. Investment Pipeline: Zambia targets over US$5bn in deals at the Invest-Zambia International Conference in December, aiming to turn investor interest into signed projects and jobs.

Anti-Corruption Crackdown: The ACC arrested a senior Ministry of Community Development and Social Services officer and a ZANIS editor over alleged possession and concealment of properties worth over K5.6m suspected to be proceeds of crime. Church vs State: Movement for Economic Emancipation president Given Chansa urged the State to drop the Archbishop Alick Banda case, saying prosecution may not serve the public interest, as regional Catholic bishops back Banda and call for a fair, transparent process. Cybercrime Push: China is deepening law-enforcement cooperation with African governments, launching an alliance targeting cross-border telecoms and cyber fraud. Food Security Warning: Malawi faces worsening food insecurity as El Niño threatens rainfall, with households struggling more from low incomes than lack of food. Lusaka Street Trade Clampdown: Lusaka City Council and police removed street vendors from undesignated areas, with volunteers cleaning the CBD after enforcement actions. Grow Zambia Agenda in Focus: Government challenged Zamtel to turn connectivity into digital services with economic value, while President Hichilema urged Parliament to enact laws supporting the Grow Zambia Agenda and job creation. Investment Pipeline: Zambia targets over US$5bn in deals at Invest-Zambia International Conference in December, as it seeks to convert investor interest into signed projects. Fuel and Cost Pressure: ERB announced fuel price increases, with commentary pointing to the end of earlier tax relief and broader global price and exchange-rate pressures.