AGP Executive Report

Climate Preparedness: Experts gathered in Lusaka to strengthen Africa’s readiness for possible El Niño impacts, urging countries to turn forecasts into practical action as drought and floods threaten food, water and energy systems. Capital Markets: United Capital Group completed a 5% stake acquisition in Nigeria’s Exchange Group (NGX), signalling confidence in Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure. Corporate Finance: FMDQ approved Miskay Boutique’s N280m–N1.02bn commercial paper tranches under a N5bn programme, aimed at funding working capital and liquidity. Energy & Infrastructure: Zambezi River Authority joined the International Hydropower Association to improve operations and boost the bankability of projects like Kariba rehabilitation and Batoka Gorge. Public Finance Risk: Bank of Zambia flagged rising civil servant loan defaults linked to payroll-based lending abuse and off-payroll borrowing, with calls for stricter debt default rules. Transport & Trade: Tanzania’s Tashico and DRC’s LMC signed a three-year Lake Tanganyika cargo and passenger transport deal to improve regional trade efficiency. Business & Crime: APG Milling depot manager jailed four years for stealing K110,000 meant for maize purchases. Sports with Local Economy Angle: Zambia Open at Nkana Golf Club was won by Stuart Krog, highlighting corporate-backed sport development.

Malaria Partnership Push: Chief Mumena urges the corporate world to fund malaria elimination in North-Western, calling for more nets, mass drug administration and community clean-ups. Copper Outlook Meets AI Demand: A new 2026 copper deficit risk is emerging as AI data centres ramp up power needs that translate into heavy copper demand, tightening supply. Debt Buyback Spotlight: Zambia secured near-unanimous participation in a $1.36bn Eurobond buyback, with government framing it as a debt-management “masterclass” that cuts future costs and frees fiscal space. Kwacha Support: Reuters reports the kwacha is expected to strengthen on robust copper prices and improved fundamentals. Public Workers Under Strain: Bank of Zambia flags rising non-performing loans among civil servants, while ZCTU calls for urgent dialogue with government over loan defaults. Health Data Gap: A health commentary says Zambia has little to no data on medical errors, leaving patient safety improvement “flying blind.” Energy Finance Trend: A special report notes African power markets are opening to private capital as reliability gaps push new contracting models. Politics With Economic Stakes: President Hichilema rallies Copperbelt UPND structures ahead of August polls; meanwhile Tonse Pamodzi’s Mundubile draws thousands in Kitwe with promises tied to mining jobs and local participation.

Debt & Markets: Zambia secured 97.85% participation in the buyback of US$1.36bn fixed-rate Eurobonds due in 2053, a key step in liability management and debt sustainability. Banking & Public Finance: The Bank of Zambia warned of rising non-performing loans among public workers, citing off-payroll borrowing, misrepresentation and weak underwriting, raising risks for lenders and the financial system. Currency Watch: Reuters reports the kwacha is expected to strengthen further this week on robust copper prices, supportive central bank policy and improved market sentiment. Campaign & Jobs: On the Copperbelt, Tonse Pamodzi Alliance rallies in Kitwe drew thousands as Brian Mundubile promised “second independence,” higher mining local content (to 50%), return of mines/dumpsites to small-scale miners, and a civil servants’ debt swap after August 13. Private Sector & Reform: President Hichilema urged businesses to drive reforms and monitor implementation, saying growth needs government and enterprise aligned. Energy Investment: A special report says African power systems are opening to private capital beyond state utility dominance, with reliability driving new deal structures. Sports Sponsorship: Zambia Sugar flagged off the 2026 Golf Invitational in Mazabuka, backing sports development as the club marks 100 years. Trade & Skills: Zambia’s engineers gained access to practise in 25 jurisdictions after provisional Washington Accord signatory status, boosting export of engineering services.

Debt Management & Power Financing: Zambia secured 97.85% participation in the US$1.36bn Eurobond buyback, with government framing it as a debt-for-energy style move to cut future costs and support grid resilience. Banking & Credit Risk: The Bank of Zambia warned of rising non-performing loans among public workers, citing off-payroll borrowing, misrepresentation and weak lender underwriting, and urged stricter debt-service-ratio compliance. Engineering & Trade in Services: Zambia’s engineers gained access to practise in 25 jurisdictions after achieving Provisional Signatory Status to the Washington Accord, boosting prospects for exporting engineering services. Private Sector Reform Push: President Hichilema urged businesses to drive and monitor reforms, stressing results across power, agriculture and exports. Campaign Economy & Social Promises: On the Copperbelt, Brian Mundubile launched his “second independence” bid and pledged a civil servants debt swap plus action on miners and dumpsites, while Hichilema called for unity within UPND ahead of August 13. Regional Business Links: Zimbabwean professionals are increasingly moving into Zambia’s mining, agriculture and construction sectors, while Tanzania secured access to South Africa’s fresh banana market. Corruption Cooperation: Zambia’s anti-corruption delegation concluded a study visit to Ghana’s Office of the Special Prosecutor to strengthen investigations and asset recovery.

Banking & Credit Risk: The Bank of Zambia has warned of rising non-performing loans linked to public workers, saying some borrowers are bypassing debt-service-ratio rules through off-payroll lending, misrepresentation and taking multiple loans, while some lenders are not consistently using Credit Reference Bureau data. Debt & Power Financing: Zambia secured near-unanimous bondholder approval for a US$1.36bn debt buyback, refinancing costly Eurobond obligations with an AfDB loan to free funds for grid resilience and electricity upgrades. Road Infrastructure Finance: NAPSA says its US$300m role in the Lusaka-Ndola dual carriageway was based on commercial due diligence, not government direction, as it seeks long-term returns for contributors. Anti-Corruption Cooperation: Zambia’s Anti-Corruption Commission delegation concluded a study visit to Ghana’s Office of the Special Prosecutor, focusing on investigations, asset recovery, digital forensics and prosecution strategies. Election Economy Debate: Civil society CSPR doubts UPND’s 2-million jobs pledge, citing lack of a clear action plan, while political messaging around mealie-meal pricing and economic stewardship continues to heat up. Defence & Governance: Zambia’s Defence Force has been urged to stay non-partisan and uphold the rule of law as elections approach.

Debt & Markets: Zambia has refinanced its second Eurobond, cutting annual debt servicing costs by about US$1.4bn and freeing resources for programmes like free education and expanded Constituency Development Funds, as Government pushes to complete debt restructuring and protect the Kwacha. Banking & SMEs: The Bank of Zambia has pledged K5bn for a Small Business Growth Initiative to widen affordable lending to MSMEs through credit guarantees, technical support and a learning platform, with launch expected by September/early October. Public Finance Oversight: The Centre for Trade Policy and Development welcomed Zambia’s Eurobond buyback participation of 97.85%, while urging a full net present value assessment to confirm net savings. Road Financing: NAPSA defended its US$300m role in the Lusaka–Ndola dual carriageway, saying the decision followed commercial due diligence and safeguards to protect contributors. Lending Risks: Bank of Zambia raised alarm over rising non-performing off-payroll loans among public workers, directing lenders to tighten debt service ratio checks and underwriting. Election Economy Debate: Opposition figures continued to challenge the ruling party’s cost-of-living messaging, including claims that advertised mealie-meal pricing is an election “vote snare.” Business & Growth Targets: President Hichilema launched the UPND 2026–2031 manifesto, pitching production targets across maize, power, copper, tourism and agriculture to drive jobs and lower living costs.

Debt & Markets: Zambia refinanced its second Eurobond and pushed debt servicing down, with President Hichilema saying annual obligations fell from about US$2.3bn to around US$900m—freeing roughly US$1.4bn for programmes like free education and expanded Constituency Development Funds. Eurobond Buyback Watch: The Centre for Trade Policy and Development backed the government’s Eurobond buyback, citing a 97.85% participation rate, but says a full net present value check is still needed to confirm net savings. SME Finance: Bank of Zambia pledged K5bn for a Small Business Growth Initiative to widen affordable lending to MSMEs via credit guarantees, technical support and a learning platform, with launch expected by September/early October. Manifesto & Growth Targets: Hichilema launched the UPND 2026–2031 manifesto, pitching a US$65bn annual value plan built on power, maize, copper, tourism and beef exports, while warning supporters not to declare victory early. Election Fairness & Violence: Tonse Alliance raised concerns about a level playing field for campaigns, while its presidential candidate Mundubile condemned intimidation and political violence. Regional Trade & Transport: Restoration of the historic MV Liemba on Lake Tanganyika is 75% complete, targeting trial operations in July and return to service in August, alongside upgrades at Kigoma Port. Tourism: KAZA ministers commended Zimbabwe’s First Lady for tourism growth, with Zambia’s tourism leadership represented at the meeting.

Debt & Markets: Zambia’s Eurobond buyback drew a 97.85% participation rate, with the government using AfDB financing plus an incentive to replace expensive debt and free funds for power expansion, though analysts say a full long-term savings check is still needed. Election Economy: President Hakainde Hichilema launched the UPND 2026 manifesto, promising jobs, lower living costs and targets like 10m tonnes of maize and 10,000MW of power—while opposition Harry Kalaba dismissed the “one million jobs” claim as unsupported. Capital Markets: LuSE market value rose to K342bn and Zambia’s capital markets posted strong Q1 growth, alongside new commercial paper activity and SME financing support via the BoZ SME Growth Initiative. Energy Finance: Standard Bank says power project financing is shifting beyond state-backed contracts toward models that assess private buyers and flexible commercial structures. Mining & Environment: Chinese-owned U-Metals in Chingola has resumed operations after a shutdown over pollution concerns, reigniting pressure on environmental compliance. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Tazara marks its 50th anniversary with a month-long programme framing the railway as a corridor for economic transformation. Policy & Governance: Zambia’s Army warned against misuse of social media and AI-generated content that could inflame divisions ahead of elections. Business Moves: Marubeni’s deal to buy TiAuto (Tiger Wheel & Tyre) signals continued cross-border corporate reshuffling across southern Africa.

Mining & Environment: Chinese-owned U-Metals has resumed operations in Chingola eight months after being shut over pollution, with critics pointing to acidic waste and a tailings dam allegedly placed dangerously close to a stream feeding the Kafue River. Politics & Cost of Living: President Hakainde Hichilema launched the UPND 2026 manifesto, promising job creation, lower living costs and faster growth, while also unveiling a plan built around economic transformation, infrastructure and delivery. Opposition & Alliances: Five parties have joined the UPND Alliance, taking membership to 15, as the ruling coalition pushes unity ahead of 2026. Debt & Markets: Zambia reported strong early results from its US$1.365bn fixed-rate step-up cash tender offer, with investors tendering about 97.85%, while Reuters notes global debt is getting more complex and could raise future borrowing costs. Finance & Business Signals: Airtel Networks Zambia hit a US$1bn market cap milestone on LuSE, and SEC says the capital markets posted solid Q1 gains on improved confidence and a stronger Kwacha. Tech & Connectivity: Google is rolling out Ask Gemini in Chrome to Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, and Bola Group launched a WhatsApp-based betting platform in Zambia to cut data costs. Public Safety: The Army cautioned the public against misuse of social media and AI-generated content that could inflame divisions. Energy & Trade: A copper supply deficit risk is growing as demand from electrification outpaces new mine development, and Zambia’s currency is expected to gain on robust copper prices.

Debt Buyback Debate: Zambia has secured bondholder support to proceed with a proposed US$1.36bn Eurobond buyback, even after the 2025 restructuring that stretched repayments to 2053—raising fresh questions on debt strategy and financing. Capital Markets Momentum: The Securities and Exchange Commission says Zambia’s capital markets grew in Q1 2026, with the LuSE All Share Index up 5.29%, market capitalisation rising to K342bn and investor numbers up to about 92,000. SME Finance Push: Bank of Zambia has committed K5bn to the Small Business Growth Initiative, targeting MSMEs with credit guarantees, technical assistance and a learning lab (launch expected in Q4 2026). Power Stability Signal: ZESCO says nationwide load management is not expected to return this year, citing improved generation and stronger links with IPPs and traders, though local outages from faults or vandalism can still happen. ZAMPOST Retirees Paid: Government released K48m to settle terminal benefits for ZAMPOST retirees under a first-retired, first-paid approach. Election Season Economics: Hichilema is set to launch the UPND 2026 manifesto on 11 June, promising jobs, lower cost of living, and electricity capacity gains. Water Sector Costs Cut: Vice-President Mutale Nalumango says water treatment chemicals have been zero-rated to reduce costs and expand access to safe water. Illicit Finance Warning: The Financial Intelligence Centre estimates Zambia lost US$3.5bn to illicit financial flows over five years, urging stronger controls to protect development spending.

Debt-for-energy Deal: Zambia cleared a key hurdle in a $1.36bn debt buyback, unlocking funds for power expansion, with the government aiming to redirect savings into electricity infrastructure. Power Stability: ZESCO says nationwide load shedding is not expected to return this year, citing improved generation and stronger links with independent power producers and traders. Illicit Financial Flows: Zambia lost an estimated US$3.5bn to illicit financial flows over five years, while Tax Justice Network Africa urges tougher, African-led action to protect domestic resources. Mining & Growth: Copper output rose to 890,345.79 tonnes in 2025 and is projected to exceed one million in 2026; Shuka Minerals also reported strong zinc grades from a third drill hole at Kabwe. Markets & Business: Airtel Zambia crossed US$1bn market cap on the LuSE, and MTN launched MTN One TV to push into cheaper video streaming. Policy & Social: Government released K48m for ZAMPOST retirees’ terminal benefits, and water treatment chemicals were zero-rated to cut costs in the water sector. Education: Hichilema signed a law making free education a legal right.

Graphite Push in Petauke: Zambia’s Ministry of Mines is conducting a EU-backed survey of graphite in Chief Mumbi’s chiefdom in Petauke, aiming to update the national geoscientific database and build local geologists’ skills. Streaming Battle: MTN is rolling out MTN One TV in South Africa and Zambia, with pricing starting as low as R30 a month and options from free-to-view to subscriptions. Free Education Becomes Law: President Hakainde Hichilema has assented to Zambia’s Education (Amendment) Bill, 2026, making free education a legal right so children can’t be denied schooling for lack of fees. Eurobond Buyback Clarity: Fitch says Zambia’s US$1.36bn Eurobond tender is not a distressed exchange, with the June 10 deadline and settlement expected two days later. Kwacha & Food Relief: Mealie meal prices have eased to about K220–K230 on a bumper harvest and a strengthening kwacha, while the exchange-rate explainer links currency stability to cheaper imports. Copper Output Update: Jubilee Metals says Molefe Mine deliveries to Sable refinery are rising toward higher targets, supporting Zambia’s copper growth plans. ZAMPOST Retirees Paid: Government released K48m for terminal benefits for former ZAMPOST employees, using a first-retired, first-paid approach. Digital Trade Payments: Ghana, Rwanda and Zambia are piloting a digital trade corridor for instant cross-border payments to cut dollar-mediated frictions. Elections Campaign Disruption: Independent candidates in Kasempa complain ECZ’s withdrawal of the candle symbol after nominations caused losses and confusion. Chess Sponsorship Deal: Chess Federation of Zambia partners with Mobile City to back the Chief Mukuni International Chess Championship in Livingstone from July 4–6.

Sovereign Debt Meets Power Investment: Zambia’s Eurobond buyback is being linked to a grid resilience push, with the country using an AfDB $600m loan alongside its own resources and committing up to $275m over 15 years to modernise electricity distribution—an approach Fitch says is not a distressed exchange. Kwacha & Cost of Living: A fresh explanation of how the kwacha moves with dollar inflows and copper earnings comes as mealie meal prices fall to about K220–K230 on a bumper harvest and a stronger currency. Copper Production Update: Jubilee Metals says Molefe Mine has restarted high-grade run-of-mine deliveries to the Sable refinery, targeting 6,000 tons per month in June and stepping up to 10,000 tpm by October. Retiree Benefits: Government releases K48m to clear outstanding ZAMPOST terminal benefits for former employees, using a first-retired, first-paid approach. Digital & Telecom Push: Zamtel signs an MoU with Ericsson to deploy private 4G/5G networks, while MTN launches One TV streaming in Zambia and South Africa. Payments Innovation: Ghana, Rwanda and Zambia test a pilot digital trade corridor for instant cross-border payments to cut dollar-mediated settlement frictions. Sports & Business Culture: Chess Federation of Zambia launches the Chief Mukuni International Chess Championship in Livingstone, backed by Mobile City, aiming to draw regional players and boost sports tourism.

Digital Sovereignty: Zambia signed an MoU with Huawei to use AI infrastructure for digital government services across 25 ministries, including co-investing in a national data centre to keep critical data in-country. Mining & Local Jobs: President Hakainde Hichilema says new 2025 mining local content rules (effective Jan 1, 2026) will lift Zambian supplier participation, with core procurement rising from 20% to 40% and non-core services reserved for locals. Copper Expansion Risk: Vedanta’s CopperTech Metals IPO filing in the US flags “going concern” doubts tied to Konkola Copper Mines’ losses, even as Vedanta targets about $2.7bn for expansion. Debt-to-Power Deal: Zambia is using an AfDB-backed $600m loan to help buy back costly sovereign bonds, linked to a Grid Resilience Programme to modernise electricity distribution. Capital Markets: FMDQ approved quotation of Sycamore Integrated Solutions’ N1.82bn and N5.07bn commercial papers under its N20bn programme to strengthen working capital and lending growth. Entrepreneurship Push: The Ministry of SMEs endorsed Zambia Governance Foundation’s “Entrepreneurship Train,” a mobile mentorship programme linking Lusaka and Livingstone to support young business owners. Wildlife Trade: KAZA states met in Victoria Falls to align on elephant conservation and elephant product trade positions, with EU funding pledged for regional conservation plans. Elections & Economy Mood: Tonse-Pamodzi’s Brian Mundubile says the August campaign feels subdued mainly because people and candidates have little money.

Ebola Preparedness: Zambia received WHO Ebola preparedness supplies worth over K400,000 to strengthen surveillance, lab testing and response, even as the country has recorded no Ebola cases. Election Economy Mood: Tonse-Pamodzi presidential candidate Brian Mundubile says the August campaign feels unusually quiet because people—and candidates—have little money to spend. Defamation Risk in Politics: Social media commentator Chellah Tukuta has been served a K10 million defamation demand letter over a Facebook post alleging links to government contracts. Debt-to-Power Link: Zambia is using an AfDB-backed $600m loan plus its own resources to buy back $1.36bn sovereign bonds, while tying the deal to a Grid Resilience Programme for electricity distribution upgrades. Mining & Local Content: Government says new 2025 mining local content rules (Statutory Instrument No. 68 of 2025) are raising the share of core procurement for Zambian-owned firms to 40% by design. Regional Trade & Borders: Zambia and Zimbabwe are installing floating buoys to make Lake Kariba’s boundary visible, aiming to cut clashes among fishermen and boat operators. Copper Capital Markets Watch: Vedanta’s planned US IPO for its CopperTech Metals unit faces scrutiny after auditors flagged “substantial doubt” over Konkola Copper Mines’ going-concern viability.

Ebola Readiness Boost: The WHO has handed Zambia medical supplies worth about $22,000, including PPE, lab reagents and specimen transport materials, to strengthen detection and response as the DRC/ Uganda outbreak threat grows. Pension Reform Watch: Zambia’s NAPSA gets its biggest shake-up in 30 years after the National Pension Scheme Act of 2026, introducing more flexibility for contributors and raising minimum monthly pensions and replacement rates. Copper & Energy Governance: Energia appoints Tai Oshisanya as an independent non-executive director, reinforcing board oversight as the firm pushes energy security and financial stewardship. Labour Focus: ZCTU is urged to stay non-partisan and concentrate on workers’ issues ahead of August polls, including arrears for retirees and deployment of senior staff. Fuel Cost Pressure: Global oil-linked fuel price hikes continue to squeeze household budgets, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption cited as a key risk to energy affordability. Trade & Connectivity Angle: A new look at Africa’s shifting trade corridors highlights how projects like the Tanzania-Zambia railway and Indian Ocean gateway ambitions could reshape regional commerce. Business & Community Giving: A Dorset family firm donated nearly 4,500 hospital uniforms to Chama District Hospital in Zambia, showing how private sector support is reaching frontline health needs.